Iran’s Economic Collapse Sparks Fears of Revolution

As Iran grapples with an economic free fall that has seen its currency lose 95% of its value since 2018, experts warn that the decimation of the country’s middle class could spark unprecedented social upheaval in the Islamic Republic.

With inflation hovering around 40% annually for the past five years, formerly stable professionals are being thrust into poverty. According to the Iranian Social Workers’ Association, middle-class citizens are increasingly turning to criminal activities.

It’s created what Iranian sociologist Ardeshir Geravand describes as a dangerous new class of educated, disenfranchised citizens.

“When legitimate paths to power and wealth remain open, members of the middle class can maintain their status. However, when these avenues are blocked, it can lead to social unrest and, ultimately, revolution,” Geravand tells Iran International.

“Injustice, special privileges for a well-connected few, bureaucratic obstacles, and the obscure political relations push people toward revolt and violence. Revolutions begin when legitimate pathways to a normal life are not accessible to everyone.”

Iran’s economic crisis has rendered basic necessities unaffordable for many Iranians, leading to a surge in family abandonment and, in some cases, suicide among breadwinners unable to provide for their households.

What makes the current situation particularly volatile, Geravand explains, is not merely the existence of poverty, but its combination with systematic barriers to social mobility.

“Violence arises when a person concludes that changing their circumstances and escaping poverty is impossible,” he says.

Last month, shoe sellers in Iran’s historic Khordad district shuttered their shops after facing devastating losses from the collapse of the rial, valued at 810,000 against the dollar.

Similar protests are now reaching urgency witnessed since the nationwide demonstrations following Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022 for violating Iran’s hijab laws.

The protests are sparking hope for a Syrian-like rebellion that remarkably just took down Bashar Al-Assad’s decades-long oppressive rule.

“We are in a state of political impasse. The government blocks any possibility for change, and if this continues, it will only perpetuate backwardness,” predicts reformist political scientist Hatam Ghaderi to the London-based news outlet.

“The transitions from the Qajar period to the Pahlavi era in 1925 and the 1979 revolution were both outcomes of political deadlock. Today, we are once again facing the same situation.”

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