Edo 2024: battle of two godfathers

 

The much anticipated off-cycle governorship election in Edo State is essentially a battle of two titans — Governor Godwin Obaseki and former Governor Adams Oshiomhole. While the two influential personalities may not be on the ballot for today’s governorship election, both of them have been the arrowhead of the campaign for the election on both sides and have been engaged in a proxy battle to install their preferred candidate as the next governor.

Oshiomhole, who currently represents Edo North Senatorial District at the National Assembly, is on a mission to return the All Progressives Congress (APC) to power in Edo State. Obaseki, whose second term as governor ends on November 12 this year, had the upper hand four years ago after he was pushed out of the APC and he succeeded in securing the ticket of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2020 election.

Oshiomhole has been campaigning vigorously for the APC flag bearer in the race, Senator Monday Okpebholo, as if his life and political career depends on it. The investment banker-turned-politician (Obaseki) learnt the rudiments of politicking as the chairman of Edo State Economic Team, which he headed for eight years.

He learnt fast and became a master of the game of politics. But Obaseki does not reason or talk like a typical politician. Regular politicians think of the next election. Yet he is a dogged fighter who has shown the stuff he is made of in the campaigns for today’s election. So far, the governor has won all his previous political battles with Oshiomhole.

Today’s election is more of a battle between a godfather and a godson. Oshiomhole governed Edo State between November 2008 and November 2016. His administration brought much development to Edo State. He constructed roads, built bridges on difficult terrains across the state and introduced the red roof revolution to public schools in the state. His performance had made it easy for him to install Obaseki, who was the Chairman of his Economic Team, as his successor. Obaseki became an easy sell to Edo people after he was described by Oshiomhole as “the software of my administration”.

Oshiomhole singlehandedly handpicked Obaseki as his successor in 2016 against the wishes and advice of the leaders of the APC, who felt that his then deputy, Pius Odubu, or another politician would be a better successor. The former trade union leader eventually convinced the party leadership that Obaseki, who was instrumental in sourcing funds for the developmental projects embarked upon during his tenure, would do a better job. He convinced them by telling them that Obaseki was in the best position to take the state through an impending global economic crisis that was predicted at that time.

Oshiomhole made sure that Obaseki emerged as the winner at the APC primary by beating Odubu to the ticket. The former governor did not stop there. Just as he did in the current election, he was the face of the Obaseki campaign, moving from one local government area to another. At the election proper, Obaseki defeated Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, who was then the candidate of the PDP.

But two years later, party leaders who were urged to support Obaseki’s victory expressed dismay because they felt excluded from his administration. The issue got to Oshiomhole whose effort to mediate was not well received by Obaseki. The governor insisted on being his own man, saying that he would not be pushed around or dictated to by a “godfather”.

Indeed, in those heady days, Obaseki, who had ridden on the wave of his ‘Edo no be Lagos’ campaign to coast home to victory for a second term, was quoted as vowing never to become a godfather. “God forbid I become a godfather. I should be dealt with accordingly because it’s dangerous to democracy,” he was widely quoted as saying.

That was how “the cold war” between Oshiomhole and Obaseki began. In this way, the relationship between Oshiomhole and Obaseki fell apart, leading to the outgoing governor being denied the APC second term ticket.

After Obaseki dumped the APC for the PDP prior to the 2020 governorship election, Oshiomhole settled for Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, who had defected to the APC, as his preferred candidate to unseat Obaseki. He led the Ize-Iyamu campaign and publicly knelt down to apologise for helping Obaseki to grab power.

However, Oshiomhole and the APC were defeated at the polls. Obaseki had support of both the PDP and APC governors. It was in fact a total victory as Obaseki won in all the local government areas.

Oshiomhole, who emerged victorious in last year’s general election to represent Edo North in the Senate, has been preparing for this battle. The APC performed better than the ruling PDP during the last general election. It made history by defeating the PDP in Edo Central, which had always been the stronghold of the PDP since the return to civil rule in 1999. Aside from winning in the Edo North and Edo Central senatorial race, the APC also won the three House of Representatives seats in Edo North. The PDP, however, won majority seats in the Edo Assembly election and the seats won by the APC were delivered from Edo North.

Oshiomhole is the only former Edo State governor that has led campaigns in two successive elections in an attempt to dislodge a sitting governor. Observers believe that Oshiomhole, as a national stakeholder in the APC, wants to have an APC governor in his home state. They believe that this might be the last campaign for Oshiomhole.

The victory Oshiomhole so much desired in today’s election is dependent on the ability of APC leaders in Edo South and Edo Central to deliver votes. The APC is sure of coasting home to victory in four out of six local government areas in Edo North. Such votes could, however, be countered from block votes from Oredo Local Government Area or Ikpoba/Okha Local Government Area.

Oredo, with a voting strength of 357,371 registered voters, constitutes 13.59 per cent of the entire registered voters, based on the INEC registration data released on August 8, 2024, while Ikpoba/Okha has even a larger voting population, with 400,495 registered voters or 15.23 per cent of the state’s 2.6 million registered voters.

Today’s election has been dubbed a do-or-die affair between the PDP and the APC by Governor Obaseki, who is backing Lagos-based lawyer and investment banker, Asue Ighodalo, to succeed him. Obaseki is fighting for his political survival and would go to any length to deliver his candidate in the election.

Like Obaseki before he emerged governor, Ighodalo too has been a key player in Edo politics, as a technocrat. He has been playing that role since the days of the Oshiomhole administration.

However, Obaseki and Oshiomhole have the Labour Party’s (LP) Olumide Akpata to contend with in the race for the Government House located on Osadebe Avenue. Akpata, the immediate past chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), who hails from Edo South Senatorial District, is considered as one of the three frontrunners in the race.

There are also other key political players who could determine where the pendulum will finally swing. One of them is former Governor Lucky Igbinedion. Like many governors and former governors, Igbinedion wields considerable influence in his domain. Since he left the Edo State seat in 2007, the son of Gabriel Igbinedion, Esama of the Kingdom of Benin, has continued to be a dominant and charismatic force in the state’s politics. Lucky Igbinedion and his father, the Esama of Benin Kingdom, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, have been campaigning for the PDP candidate.

Similarly, Oshiomhole would be counting on the support of people like Deputy Governor Philip Shaibu, who was recently reinstated as the number two man in the state. After falling out with Obaseki, following his controversial impeachment, Shaibu, who recently returned to the APC, has declared support for the party’s candidate.

Shaibu, a former governorship aspirant on the PDP platform, said his action – supporting an opposition candidate —- is not “anti-party”, adding that Obaseki had said everybody was free to choose who to support in any election.

Oshiomhole would also have the support of Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, a grassroots politician, two-time governorship candidate, former Chief of Staff and Secretary to the Edo State Government. Ize-Iyamu is another household name in Edo politics whose political influence will help shape the outcome of the election. Ize-Iyamu who had earlier thrown his hat in the ring for the Edo governorship election on the platform of the APC, withdrew from the race to back Okpebholo, following the latter’s emergence as the party’s candidate.

One other factor that would shape the outcome of today’s election is zoning. Though there is no clear-cut agreement on zoning or power rotation in Edo State, it is going to be a crucial factor in the forthcoming election because sentiments regarding the idea are high among the populace in Edo State. Edo Central, which is made up of five of the 18 local governments in the state, is favoured to produce the next governor.

No one from that zone has governed the state since the return to civil rule in 1999 aside from the brief period Prof. Oserheimen Osunbor, was at the helm of affairs between May 2007 and November 2008 before he was removed through a court verdict.

Edo Central’s political narrative is shaped by its profound sense of marginalisation, as articulated in the Esan Agenda. Therefore, the two parties that picked their candidates from the region — the PDP and the APC — are more likely to secure bulk votes from Edo Central, otherwise known as Esanland.

Thus, today’s election is a battle of titans between Oshiomhole and Obaseki. Despite the odds that confronted him, Obaseki succeeded in securing the party’s ticket for his anointed successor, Ighodalo, a Lagos-based lawyer, businessman and banker.

The PDP is coming into this election with its fair share of crisis. For instance, Obaseki has been at loggerheads with the PDP National Vice Chairman (Southsouth), Chief Dan Orbih, over the control of the party’s structures, following its victory in the last governorship election. So, Governor Obaseki and the PDP flag bearer would have to contend with Orbih, an ally of the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, and the immediate past chairman of Edo PDP.

The PDP candidate, Ighodalo, an old boy of Kings College, Lagos, hails from Ewohimi, in Edo Central Senatorial District. A founding partner of Banwo & Ighodalo, one of the foremost commercial law firms in the country, he obtained his first degree in Economics from the University of Ibadan and a law degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science. He is the chairman of the Board of Directors of Sterling Bank Plc. He also sits on the boards of other public and private companies.

Okpebholo was born on August 29, 1970 in the Udomi-Uwessan community of Irrua. He holds a degree in Business Administration from the University of Abuja and holds a Master’s degree in Policy and Leadership Studies from the same institution.

A grassroots politician, Okpebholo contested the Edo Central senatorial seat on the platform of the APC during the last general election and won.

In February 2024, he secured the governorship ticket of the party for today’s election.

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